Nov 10, 2020
2 min read
Diplomatic Doors for Dummies
A Guide to Realistically Resolving International Tensions
- The situation in Yemen increasingly appears to be the ripest for resolution at the time of writing. Reports are emerging of major drawdowns by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, perhaps to preempt anticipated criticism by Joe Biden. In any event, Sana’a has recently been quite explicit regarding its adoption of a de facto dual track policy of intensifying diplomatic efforts with friend and ostensible foe alike while maintaining the heightened tempo of military operations. It is not impossible that Sana’a could serve as a key that opens more than one door.
- The passing of Saeb Erakat, who was the Palestinian figure most associated with the post-1988 shift to negotiations, could serve to accelerate the pivot toward a more militaristic approach that has been increasingly evident in both Gaza and the West Bank. Regardless of whether the West Bank government opts to fully reconcile with its counterpart in Gaza, the post-2006 balance may well be on its last legs. With all major players, from the most hardline to the more pragmatic to the most pragmatic, expressing conceptual openness to a constructive dialogue, the adoption of a more pragmatic approach in DC in word and deed would have better than even odds of achieving greater success than the conventional wisdom suggests. Otherwise, demographic realities would determine the outcome within two decades. In the words of a savvy strategist, one does not make peace by speaking to friends.
- Iran is an issue that has vexed US policymakers for four decades for a variety of reasons. That said, the realities of the situation have been largely defined by Tehran asking each administration to show the beef and receiving only relish and on one occasion some cheese. They have already laid out their wares, made a starting bid that offers more than 2013 and are waiting for a counteroffer.
- Syria and Lebanon have largely been approached as extensions of Iran, which is an inaccurate framing. Economic problems have been part of the political problems and can serve as a start to the political solutions in the event that a pragmatic strategy is adopted in word and deed.
- North Korea is perhaps the toughest nut to crack. Seventy years of acute mistrust and false starts have poisoned the well to a considerable degree. That said, Pyongyang and Tehran are among the most hard-nosed ostensible adversaries and as with Tehran, Pyongyang will not refuse to sit down if shown the beef. China will probably end up helping to some extent if it prevents instability on their borders, a sensitive issue in Beijing, but it is unlikely to hinder such efforts in any case.
