- The Horn of Africa has emerged in a matter of weeks as the most significant potential wild card where global tensions are concerned. Trump’s atypical remarks during the announcement of the formalization of Sudan-Israel ties portended problems ahead, especially in light of the response by Ethiopian officials. That said, the issue that eventually boiled over was the dispute between the incumbent leader in Addis Ababa and his predecessors, who rule over a semi-autonomous region near the border with Sudan and Eritrea. The decision by the government opponents to fire missiles at the Eritrean capital of Asmara initially threatened to derail a landmark peace agreement Addis Ababa and Asmara had signed in 2018 but it appears that the two countries have in effect partnered against their mutual enemy. Future problems are not impossible, especially considering the raw wounds and the continuing prospect that Cairo could see an opening to settle its dispute with Ethiopia regarding the latter’s controversial dam. The lame duck period in the US poses particular challenges in this regard.
- The situation in Syria has played out on the international stage for nearly a decade, yet the marked increase in the tempo of Israeli airstrikes and their sensitive nature could quite conceivably prompt an escalatory response from Damascus, Tehran or Beirut. The vow by Hezbollah’s leader to retaliate in the event that any casualties were to affect his group in Lebanon or Syria is worth noting, as is Tehran’s relative restraint as it awaits the dawn of the Biden era. The situation in southern Syria is also noteworthy in light of Israel’s interest in maintaining a buffer between its territory and Iran-affiliated groups, which has been supported to some extent by Russian efforts. The Kurdish-led and relatively oil-rich northeast region, which has a US military presence, is also of note to a lesser extent, especially in the event that Assad turns his attention to the area upon retaking Idlib. The potential for a resurgence of radical elements in western Iraq or eastern Syria is also a potential factor, specifically in Nineveh, Anbar, Hasakah and Deir Ezzor.
- The Taiwan Strait was a larger source of tension between the US and China over the summer than had been the case for over half a century, perhaps since 1958. Despite having calmed significantly as of late, the tensions certainly could re-emerge in the event that the reported decisions related to cyber warfare and related measures are taken by the lame duck Trump administration. It is worth noting in this respect that the status of Taiwan is one of the few topics on which Beijing has long drawn a red line for use of military force.
- The conflict in Yemen increasingly appears to be both among the most unpredictable potential flashpoint for conflict in the last two months of 2020 and an underrated promising key that could open sizable doors for dialogue well beyond the Red Sea region. It is of particular note in the latter regard that the Houthis, locally termed Ansar Allah, are among the only members of the Iranian Axis of Resistance that are not sanctioned by the US at the present time, have displayed the most conceptual openness to constructive dialogue and are party to an issue with rare bipartisan agreement in DC due to widely-acknowledged excesses by the Saudi-led military coalition. Last minute blacklisting of the sort that is rumored to be imminent would be an impediment yet a relatively surmountable one given the abrupt and atypical manner in which it would be imposed.
